“Anti-risk” trend continues. The dollar reached a critical point

At previous sessions, the markets continued their game against the risk: a series of weak U.S. reports, faded stock markets and triggered stop-loss – all these factors helped the dollar advance. Dollar Index reached its maximum value by more than 2 weeks at the level of 76.559. We all sat down in their heads now, one question: what brings the current dollar rally – a new opportunity for him to sell or the beginning of something more sinister. As an index of the dollar should pay special attention to the level of 76.62, which will play a decisive role. Note also that the S & P500 index closed below the 55-day moving average for the first time from July 14, and is a possible sign of further decline.

Let us turn to the statistics. Orders for durable goods in the United States amounted to 1%, thus, met expectations of analysts. A good indicator is that the improvements were concentrated in volatile sectors, such as increased orders for capital goods. The only drawback in the report was revised from the previous month in the lower side. Further published disappointing sales data on the primary housing market. Despite the favorable credit conditions and tax breaks sales for the month fell by 3,6%. Saved too high stock of unsold homes. With behind the weak consumer confidence, the markets meet today’s report on GDP for the 3 rd quarter in a gloomy mood.

Central banks, which held a meeting on monetary policy during the night and yesterday’s trading session, did not change market expectations, however, the content of the accompanying statements caused some discontent among the masses. Bank of Norway raised its rates by 25 bps, but warned that further increases might be smaller, may be postponed or even canceled, if the strengthening of the Norwegian krone will exceed the planned amount. A strong blow to all the “bull” by the crown. This morning, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has kept the rate unchanged, as expected, however, the tone of the accompanying statement was more pessimistic than expected by market participants. RBNZ left the old policy, saying he was not going to raise interest rates until the second half of 2010. Also, the Central Bank again expressed his concern that the high New Zealand dollar negative impact on exports. From these statements the New Zealand dollar accelerated the decline, which began even earlier under the influence of a general reduction of risk transactions in the Commodity block.

In the current “anti-risk” conditions Asia ignored the news that the leaders of two parties of the Senate – the Democratic and Republican – unanimously called for the extension and increase in shedding program of tax incentives for the primary buyers, however, vote for this measure is likely to postponed until next week. Also at the previous session broke the news of a possible new case of fraud among hedge funds in the style Madoff. There were reports that are being investigated in the case of a German fund of funds. This was an additional factor for risk reduction.

Australian dollar, which has recently been experiencing serious difficulties, was unable to rely on new articles of known explorers RBA MakKrenna and Mitchell. Both are now projected rate increase next week by 25 bps, and Mitchell went further and said that the December increase is not “made” the case, as many believe. Australian dollar for only a short time, stayed above the 0.90 mark, after which most of the Asian session decline.

Pay attention to the current statistics: in Europe come data on unemployment in Denmark, Norway and Germany, retail sales in Norway, the consumer lending in the UK and confidence in the eurozone, the U.S. major news will report on GDP for the 3 rd quarter. The market expects a significant improvement compared with the 2 nd quarter, and the average forecast is 3.2%. We set a little over optimistic and expect growth of 3,6%, secured the influence of “trash for NAL and tax incentives for the primary buyers of housing. In addition, Canada will come the price indices of industrial raw materials, and in the United States – a weekly report on the appeals for unemployment insurance.

Saxo Bank