According to the report of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the indicator of economic activity in the U.S. rose in September and overcame a critical point, which indicates a recession.Note that the index of national activity is calculated on the basis of 85 different economic indicators.The average value of the index of activity for the three-month period from July to September rose to a negative value of -0.63 compared with -0.96 in the previous period, from June to August. For the first time since January 2008, the average value of the index broke the level of -0.70, indicating a recession in the economy.As noted by the FBI in Chicago, for the last four recessions in the U.S.
Posts Tagged ‘Recession’
The index of national activity in the United States overcame the bar recession
Posted by admin on October 27th, 2009
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Aussie made significant gains at the end of last week and is continuing to advance this morning
Posted by admin on October 26th, 2009
In trading on Friday, the pound slipped back from two-week highs around the 1.8000 level against the aussie as a weak GDP figure dulled demand for the UK currency. A report showed that the UK failed to exit the recession in the third quarter of this year, giving the central bank more reason to keep enacting emergency measures to spur growth. The data showed that the UK contracted by a further 0.4%, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% expansion and firmly halting the pound’s progress. Where as in Australia interest rates have already been raised on the back of growing confidence in the economy, the UK may now be considering further loosening its monetary policies as recovery struggles to take hold.
Sterling fell back significantly against the dollar on Friday, as GDP figure disappoints the market
Posted by admin on October 26th, 2009
Sterling lost three cents (1.9%) to the dollar, as a weak UK quarterly GDP figure abruptly halted the pound’s recent rally. The greenback gained the most daily value against the pound in a month as the UK’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, giving the Bank of England more reason to expand emergency measures to spur growth. It is the first time UK gross domestic product has contracted for six consecutive quarters, since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955. The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar following the release of the figures, losing 0.6% in two minutes, with traders particularly concerned that the UK may turn out to be the only major economy still in recession.
UK economy contracted by 0.4%, which has and will continue to weigh heavily on sterling
Posted by admin on October 26th, 2009
In an uncertain day for the UK economy, the pound lost as much as 2.0% to the euro on Friday, sharply reversing its recent rally to close down at 1.0862. Data revealed that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% between July and September this year, confirming that the UK is still in recession. Quarterly growth of 0.2% had been expected, although expectations had been tempered by recent figures showing no growth in retail sales in September and a 2.5% decline in industrial output in August. Importantly, the disappointing GDP figures may now lead the Bank of England to consider the possibility of extending their asset purchase scheme in their November meeting in order to sustain the evidently fragile recovery.
Bank of Canada left interest rates at the same level
Posted by admin on October 21st, 2009
Bank of Canada today adopted a decision to leave the refinancing rate unchanged at 0.25%.The latest indicators show the beginning of the withdrawal of the world economy from deep recession. State of the world economy and the general trends in the financial markets have been somewhat more favorable projections, which were listed in the July report on monetary policy the Bank of Canada.Given the current interest rate factors in Canada can not remain at current levels until the end of the second quarter of 2010 for the achievement of targeted inflation .
End of the line for the old monetary regime
Posted by admin on October 16th, 2009
What does the financial crisis in the context of monetary policy? The answer may seem obvious. Central banks have responded to the stalling of interbank markets with massive injections of liquidity. When they ran out of room to maneuver with a short-term rates, they have a direct impact on the money supply through quantitative easing. As conditions stabilized, the question arises: when and how to tighten policy, so as not to push an already fragile economy back into recession or not to allow another major round of inflation.Specific solutions have been widely obsuzhdaemy, but has been relatively little discussion about the purpose or structure in tactics.
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For Britain – low interest rates and the weakening pound
Posted by admin on October 14th, 2009
With the advent of a more precise plan of the Conservative Party of Great Britain and slightly more predictable state of the economy of this country, it becomes possible to make assumptions about the future situation. Our latest economic forecast, which will be published later, reflects our average estimate compiled on the basis of stronger data and political development. In these circumstances, we expect the Conservative Party victory in the May elections with a substantial margin for the majority of seats in the cabinet. As a result, we see that monetary policy will receive a “powerful acceleration, while the fiscal experience a strong reversal.We expect to reduce state spending by 80 billion pounds, increasing revenues from indirect taxes by 20 billion pounds and “return to the development of” package valued at 3 billion pounds.
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No reprieve yet for the ailing pound; continues to slide further against the euro
Posted by admin on October 7th, 2009
The pound slid for the third consecutive day against the single currency, losing 0.6% following a fall in industrial output, to close at 1.0812.Sterling received an early boost yesterday morning as a Halifax survey revealed a further rise in UK house prices of 1.6% in September, buoying hopes of a strengthening economy. However, such hopes were soon dashed after data revealed an unexpected fall in UK manufacturing output, which raised doubts over recovery prospects. British manufacturing fell 1.9% on the month in August, its steepest fall since January, which compares to a downwardly revised rise of 0.7% in July, and fell some way short of analysts’ predictions of a 0.4% increase.
Positve UK data enabled the pound to reverse losses against the aussie yesterday
Posted by admin on September 30th, 2009
The pound reversed recent losses to gain 0.75% on the aussie yesterday in the wake of some positive economic data, which spurred investor demand. A GDP revision showed that British output contracted 0.6% in the second quarter compared with activity in the first three months of 2009, better than the previous estimate of -0.7%, according to the Office for National Statistics This data was supported by higher realised sales and an increase in net lending to individuals, which, together, underlined hopes that the UK should pull out of recession in the 3 rd quarter.
The UK economy is showing signs of recovery, which has buoyed the ailing pound
Posted by admin on September 30th, 2009
In trading yesterday the pound picked itself up from 6-month lows against the single currency, gaining 0.7% as positive data buoyed investor sentiment. In a final revision, Britain’s second quarter GDP figure was reported as -0.6%, up from a previous revision of -0.7% and strengthening claims that the UK will exit recession in the third quarter. There was also positive data from the UK CBI retail sales index, which showed considerable improvement from last month, reaching levels well above expectations. Additionally, lending to individuals rose in August, reflecting both an increase in the willingness of high street banks to extend credit, and also improved consumer confidence in the market as they begin to take on more debt.
Forex Weekly Trading Forecast – 09.28.09
Posted by admin on September 27th, 2009
US Dollar: Optimistic Economic Outlooks to Meet Hard Facts This Week Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish- The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged, but signaled a more optimistic outlook- University of Michigan consumer confidence jumped to a 21-month high in September- US durable goods orders tumbled 2.4% in August, marking the steepest drop since JanuaryThe US dollar ended the past week marginally higher after the Federal Reserve issued a more optimistic outlook on the economy. In the coming week, though, there will be a variety of growth indicators on hand that may help to signal whether the US recession really ended in Q2.
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USD Up on Fed Statements; Oil Sinks on Demand Concerns
Posted by admin on September 24th, 2009
The US Federal Reserve yesterday upgraded its assessment of the U.S. economy, saying growth had returned after a deep recession. As expected, the Fed kept its target for its federal funds rate set at a range of zero to 0.25%. The previously weakened Dollar had been propping up commodity prices. Following the US Crude Oil Inventory report yesterday, oil prices dropped nearly 4% to below $68.50 a barrel. The Fed statement, which pushed the US Dollar up, only helped extend these decreases in oil prices.USD – Dollar Optimism High Following Fed StatementsThe Dollar rallied yesterday against most of its major counterparts amid concern that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its efforts to lift the economy out of recession.
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Positive data from NZ keeps the kiwi advancing against the pound
Posted by admin on September 24th, 2009
Following positive news in New Zealand, the kiwi climbed strongly yesterday but had its gains steadily pulled back after the release of the MPC minutes. It was revealed early yesterday morning that New Zealand had officially exited recession posting a third quarter positive GDP figure of 0.1%, which pulled the price to a low of 2.2433.The report raised expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would move to tighten monetary policy sooner than previously forecast.However, the kiwi had most of its gains steadily eroded throughout the day’s trading after the minutes from the latest UK MPC meeting revealed no discussion over reducing current interest rates, with the pair closing at 2.2696.In trading this morning, the kiwi has advanced further, currently trading up nearly a percent, as fresh data from New Zealand showed that domestic consumer confidence jumped to a four-year high in the third quarter.
GBP Anticipates Volatility before Rate Decision
Posted by admin on September 10th, 2009
With mixed results versus its primary currency counterparts, the British Pound appears to be consolidating many of its trends towards a volatile movement; positioned to take place today, it appears. The Bank of England’s rate decision and policy statement at 11:00 GMT may be today’s leading news event and forex traders won’t want to miss out on the volatility which is sure to follow this release.USD – USD Down 3.7% against the EUR this YearThe Dollar Index traded near the weakest level in almost a year against the currencies of six major U.S.
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Broad dollar weakness and an increase in demand for sterling has pushed the price back near $1.63
Sterling achieved a three-week high of 1.6297 against the dollar yesterday, supported by upbeat comments about the UK economy. The pound jumped nearly three cents, or 1.8%, against the dollar on speculation that policy makers will pause their asset-purchase programme next month as the economy shows signs of recovering from the recession. The Financial Times cited Bank of England Markets Director Paul Fisher as saying that the asset purchases scheme may be paused to give the central bank the option “of doing more later.” Analysts suggested that it appeared that the Bank of England was letting it be known in more forceful terms that it is not talking the pound down any longer.
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