On Friday forex trade the Swiss franc lowered against dollar. However it has previously moved inch by inch down and finally reached this stage. It had hovered about one month low against the greenback dollar. Nevertheless the intensive worry is that the Europe future is more attracted towards the dollar and it tends to make this dollar more attractive in the market.

To limit on the Swiss franc’s appreciation the SNB (Swiss National Bank) set a cap for the Swiss franc against the euro on the month of September. However the hovering movement and ups and downs of the franc and dollar was closely noticed and they were highly compared with that of the euro vs dollar. They started this close watch only after the SNB decision.

An analyst, Ursina Kubli said that political status and uncertainty that is being prevailed in Italy will be able to provide a key solution for franc. There is been a due in US in the meantime for the Michigan sentiment index. Kubli added that this might be the primary sign indicating that the risk level is been fading.

However, in euro all the sign indicate the middle recession period and the franc seems to fall further more against the dollar in upcoming periods. SNB assured that it will take fore forward steps to weaken the franc for the maximum so that it will tend the euro to rise against the franc. Investors finally understood that this will help the central bank to set a cap on euro vs Swiss franc.

At New York close, franc was 0.9062 low per dollar. However it was 0.1% low against the dollar in general. Now the franc is 0.2% low against euro and at 1.2343 values per euro. Kubli said that the franc is week or flat against the euro and the SNB has not commented more on this status so far.

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The dollar fell for record low against yen since after the news on the US consumers view on the economy was said and it was since the middle of the great recession. On Tuesday it was noted that the Japanese currency, yen rose against major other currencies and it was seemed to be US consumer sentiment weak and also the euro debt crisis issue also seems to breakdown for a while.

The Conference Board Index said that the index value is low and it is marked to be far lower than that analysts have expected. The consumer sentiment has made it worse since March 2009. Yen seems to be the safer currency where the investors could invest because it is most likely to be lost in their value. Traders can also yen currency to invest in Japanese companies.

On Monday the dollar was at 76 against yen however at 3: 06pm that day it fell to 75.92 against yen which is about 0.08 yen low. Nevertheless, on Tuesday morning at about 11 pm to reached 75.71 yen, this is a record low for dollar. It was noted that the US economy is barely growing and that point has greatly supported yen to be improved in their currency value.

The statistical report tells that both dollar and yen currency is considered be the safer currency which value don’t rise or fall regardless of their economy weakness.yen appeal over the dollar weakness only when the US economy shudders.

European finance minister actually planned for a meeting to discuss and submit an issue report on debt crisis but it was canceled later and it was the one of reason that the euro plunged against the yen. Euro fell to 105.71 from 106.1. It was reported that it may even fall to 105.25 yen. Nevertheless in other forex trade it fell from $1.3931 to $1.3931.

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Although there seems to be a slower growth in the US economy, the growth stills happens to be persist. The report produced by the US government says that the dollar has risen against euro. The economic growth of the euro has been trembled not just by the dollar rise but also by some troubling signals from Europe.

The rise of euro was on late Tuesday to about $1.3246 however it fell from $1.3369 (Wednesday morning) to $1.3351 (late Wednesday). Survey on the service sector tells that the companies have expanded their business in the month of September when compared with august. In august the growth was at slower pace.

ISM (Institute for Supply Management) said the back to back orders are issued so that the economic growth of euro could be provided a way to pick up. Currency traders are much concerned about the euro debt problems and they are worried that if it would affect in any means.

Payroll report provided a statistics that the private companies have provided 91,000 jobs in the September and it has been little good compared with august. Nevertheless this report will not tend to predict the official government job report which would be given on Friday.

Dollar attracted the traders of various currencies towards itself by its development phase and the euro forex traders are yet to be alarmed to a fear that the crisis will however cause recession in Europe, which in turn will hurt the investors. Canadian dollar fell to $1.0432 from $1.0641 late Tuesday.

Dollar rose strong only against euro but it actually fell against major other currency. Japanese yen is at 76.96 from 76.72. Swiss franc has increased for about 0.0002 that is from 0.9240 to 0.9242. The British pound is at $1.5467. All of these rising growth happened on a same day and approximately at same time.

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International currency market is the largest and biggest financial market in the world but the flip side to the story is that it is also the most fluid market. Needless to say the economic condition of the country determines whether the value of that particular currency will be high or low, in the international currency market. US dollar has ruled the charts for a very long period of time and still remains the undisputed king, as far as international currency trade is concerned. We have seen a lot of pressure in case of the New Zealand dollar. It has taken a lot of beating and the main reason why New Zealand dollar has taken a beating is the economic condition of the country.

The latest data reveals that unemployment in New Zealand is at an all time high and this was reason enough for the international community to press the panic button. The figure gives away the story; the unemployment rate stands at 7.3%, much above the expectations of the analysts. More over the government of the day still needs to prove itself, and to the world at large that it can do something for the country and that too at a very fast pace. Recession has still not shown any sign of recovery. Add to this the rising inflation rate and the bad debts from the housing sector and it will not be difficult to understand why New Zealand dollar has taken a beating and is still under the scanner. Again the figure will give away the story; New Zealand dollar in comparison to the US dollar is at 0.69416. The lending rate in New Zealand is 2.5%; this again puts pressure on the New Zealand dollar.

China is more interested in investing in Australia in comparison to New Zealand (of course due to its own economic interest); this also puts a lot of pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Chinese economy has grown steadily, rather the economy is growing steadily and hence their tilt towards Australia puts the currency of New Zealand under tremendous pressure. Though the New Zealand dollar has recovered, to an extent, in comparison to what it was in 2008, they still have to go a long way if they want their currency to stabilize further.

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The rippling affect of recession and economic slowdown in America has left the Australian dollar on a slippery surface. As of now the AUD (Australian dollar) in comparison to the US dollar, in terms of bidding and asking prices is 0.8800 to 0.8808. There are various reasons attached to the downslide of the Australian dollar. One of the primary reasons is the wait and watch policy (investors are very closely monitoring the Australian economy) and this is having a negative affect on the value of the Australian dollar.  The Reserve Bank of Australia has indicated that a further interest rate cut in the mortgage sector is not a feasible option. At present the interest rate is at 3.75% and the analysts were expecting a further cut of 0.5%. This is the main and primary reason why the Australian dollar finds itself on a sticky surface.

Another very important reason why Australian dollar is under pressure is the fact that despite the improvement in the export sector of Japan (the latest data shows that exports has shown a positive, upward growth as far Japan is concerned) the country’s overall economic condition looks bleak, in case of Japan. Economic condition of Japan has a direct impact on the Australian economy. Australia exports a lot many stuff to Japan and in fact they are one of the main exporting destinations as far Australia is concerned (to be precise, the second, in terms of export ranking). The irony here is that though export has gone up in case of minerals like coal and iron ore (Australia is exporting a fair bit of these two minerals to Japan) but export of other items/ products have not picked up and in fact are showing no signs of recovery. This is another very important reason why the Australian dollar remains under pressure.

The international rating of Japan (credit rating) is still on the negative side as confirmed by S&P. This again has put a significant amount of pressure on the Australian dollar. In case you are planning to buy the Australian dollar against United Kingdom’s pound then it is advisable that you should freeze the deal at 2.2000.

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The year 2008 was bad, to put it mildly, in terms of recession and economic downturn/ slowdown in the United States of America. It was no different in the year 2009, perhaps even worse, it seemed as if the economy of the US was in a free fall. It is therefore not at all surprising that US dollar lost lots of its sheen and hence its value. To rouse the economy of the country the Government went ahead with another cut in the interest rates of the Federal Reserve. It was or rather is a misconception that these stimulus packages offered by the Government to bail out the economy will further plunge the value of US dollar.

It is not surprising to predict that the year 2010 will see the US dollar making a very strong recovery as compared to its counterparts (other strong currencies). We have started seeing the US dollar making a recovery in the past fifteen to twenty days and the year ahead seems to bring a lot cheer to those who have kept their cool and held on to the US dollar. It is also not astonishing and surprising to note that the last two quarterly results have been on the positive side and this has given the fillip, which was required for the US dollar to bounce back.

The positive sentiment of the recovery of the US dollar can be seen in the international currency market if you take a closer look at the figures and charts (international currency rates and charts). US dollar against European Euro, US dollar against Japanese Yen, US dollar against Australian dollar and US dollar against UK’s pound, etc. are all showing a positive tilt in favor of the US dollar. All you have to do is take a closer look at the increasing strength of the US dollar against most of the other strong currencies of the world.

A fair bit can be interpreted through the following figures: US dollar in comparison to the Japanese yen, as on date is 90.840 (bidding price) / 90.850 (asking price) and that of the Australian dollar in comparison to the US dollar is 0.8862 (bidding price) / 0.8866 (asking price). These two examples clearly show that the dollar is steadily gaining ground and the year 2010 will see a strong US dollar once again.

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The U.K. currency profited today from an increase in the nation’s house prices, fueling even further speculations that the recession might be ending in Britain, attracting investors to purchase

pound-priced assets in a day of bullish equities markets in London.

In a day of predominant risk appetite as commodities and equities advanced in the U.K., the pound profited from an optimistic scenario in the country as Rightmove Plc, a leading British real estate website, indicated that house prices increased last month, adding evidences for speculations that Bank of England’s current asset purchase program may expire next month and not be extended further, which would certainly allow the pound to climb in foreign-exchange markets. The euro posted a slight decline versus the sterling as traders remained skeptical regarding Greece’s budget deficit and the European Central Bank’s capability of rescuing the Southern European nation from a financial collapse.

Several analysts believe that the pound may outperform multiple key-currencies in foreign-exchange markets this year, as the recession fades away and according to some speculations, the country’s currency would be undervalued. If positive data continues to be published the pound may experience a sharp rally, specially versus a less attractive euro in the following weeks.

EUR/GBP traded at 0.8803 as of 16:14 GMT from an opening rate of 0.8821 when markets opened yesterday. GBP/USD climbed to 1.6333 from 1.6258.

If you want to comment on the Great Britain pound’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

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The U.K. currency may be experience a shift on its sentiment as speculations suggest that the current quantitative easing measures used by the nation’s central bank will be terminated, as the country starts to publish positive economic reports, suggesting that the recession may be ending in the British Isles.

This week will be decisive for the pound as inflation yearly numbers are due to be published the next Tuesday, and if forecasts will be confirmed, the numbers are expected to surpass Bank of England’s target below 2 percent for the first time in seven months, fueling even further speculations that quantitative easing measures will be lifted in the U.K. anytime soon this year. The 200 billion pounds used for bond purchasing will have their last part of 25 billion to be used by early February, and the next central bankers’ meeting may already bring better news for the sterling if the country’s monetary policy change its direction.

The pound has been suffering from an insistent recession combined with a struggling financial system and ineffective policies taken by the Bank of England to combat the crisis, but as economic data improves, the pound may advance considerably, since it was one of the currencies who lost the most among the main traded ones in foreign-exchange markets last year.

GBP/USD traded at 1.6277 as of 02:20 GMT from a previous rate of 1.6256 when markets closed last Friday.

If you want to comment on the Great Britain pound’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

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The U.S. currency was performing quite well during most of this week’s session as optimism regarding the U.S. economy was high, but the employment data published on Friday forced the greenback down versus most of the main traded currencies, as figures came much below forecasts.

The dollar posted the biggest weekly in two months as a non-farm payrolls report indicated more jobs cuts than expected, frustrating forecasts and declining odds that the Federal Reserve will lift stimulus and start a series of interest rate hikes that would happen sooner-than-expected, as some speculations suggested, if the economy accelerated at a faster pace. Among the most important traded currencies, U.K.’s pound was the only not able to beat the dollar, as the recession in the U.K. continues a reality, with quantitative measures used by the Bank of England being ineffective so far and the parliament failing to reach a consensus regarding the nation’s budget deficit.

Analysts were frustrated as this week’s U.S. data didn’t meet their expectations, and traders sold dollar positions after the non-farm payrolls report were published, considering that the greenback had been trading high during most of the week as optimism was intense. Next week will provide a monthly retail sales report, which will be the next key-report to determine the dollar’s trends.

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.4408 after being traded around the 1.4300 level before the payrolls report came to public this Friday.

If you want to comment on the U.S. dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

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The British currency continued to suffer from its central bank monetary policies as interest rates remained unchanged in the country, suggesting that the recession will remain a reality in England for an extended period.

A concerning budget deficit combined with weak economic data has been affecting the pound’s outlook as the Bank of England insists on its asset-purchase program which hasn’t been effective so far, as well as in all-time record low interest rates which decrease the appeal for the sterling in foreign-exchange markets.

GBP/USD bottomed at 1.5923 as of 22:21 GMT from a previous rate of 1.6036.

If you want to comment on the Great Britain pound’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

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Unfortunately, this is quite symmetrical image belied by the facts. There is a widespread view that the damage caused during a recession, associated with the financial crisis, tends to be twice as much during the traditional recession. More important is the conclusion that most of the losses in production during the recession is permanent and that the economy will never return to its old trend line. These findings have been demonstrated in some detail by the late Christopher Dow (Christopher Dow) in his study “The primary recession,” which was published in 1998. Although some research has been thorough and fundamental, with today’s macro-economy has little correlated. Latest world economic outlook the IMF has already appeared, however, have something to accuse him, it concerns the fourth chapter, which, unfortunately, only available on the Internet.

The authors of the report, the IMF estimated that the output from the financial crisis remains at 10% below trend in the medium term, which is defined as seven years. Of course, this average with a tolerance on both sides. In Chile, since 1981 and in Mexico, since 1994, output grew much faster than the previous trend, whereas after 1997 in Japan, growth has stagnated for many years. Average score may exaggerate the impression of sustained loss of production capacities. This may be due to prolonged effects of the recession, which would require more than seven years to completely disappear. UK Treasury provides a permanent loss in the economy of 5% of GDP.

Countries that are currently in the midst of a banking crisis, in the amount accounted for half of real GDP of all developed countries. This is equivalent to the GDP of about $ 40,000 bn (€ 27,050 bn, £ 24,440 bn) for the year. If we apply the 5% underestimation in terms of production, the future hole in the world economy of up to $ 2,000 billion, that is little consolation, because, according to the IMF, the economy, which allow for counter-cyclical fiscal and monetary stimulus in the short term to mitigate the slowdown in the aftermath of the crisis, as tend to experience less decline in the medium term. “

Interestingly enough, these studies show a possible return to pre-crisis growth rate with a lower level. I can not help but notice that it is a very convenient result for the politicians, because they are blamed for the causes of the crisis, and the output of the recovery phase is intended to be the return of new, even lower trend, resulting in them will be difficult to clearly blame insufficient growth .

A detailed analysis of the IMF suggests that the higher structural unemployment, slower accumulation of capital and lower productivity growth played an important role in explaining long-term decline in output since the financial crisis. National Institute of Great Britain primarily emphasizes a high price for risk, which may increase the actual cost of capital, resulting in higher commissions for the purchase of shares on the stock market.

But I’m not quite sure. Based on the vision of Keynes, which is set out in the last few chapters of his general theory, there is a persistent tendency for savings in connection with the natural excess of investment opportunities and, therefore, full employment is achieved, in rare cases, such as wartime or at the peak of the boom. According to this analysis, no need to explain the loss in production during the collapse, but unstable, high levels that preceded it. That is why Keynes advocated the preservation of low interest rates in order to alleviate the stagnant trend. This picture is not possible in the postwar decades, but may come into its own now, with the emergence of chronic surpluses of Asian economies.

If China and other countries are chronic “savers” who can be “sverhzaemschikami? Over the years they have been consumers of “Anglo-Saxon” model of the economy. But even if there was no banking crisis, sooner or later they would have to face the prudential limits of their debt levels as a result, only the public authorities will take out loans. The proposals enunciated kinds of money can cause dissatisfaction of the authorities that they do so on their own. But the right approach may be at St. Augustine: “It will make me virtuous, but not now” – where “not now”, which is still a very long time.

The Financial Times
October 29

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The aussie dollar reversed recent losses yesterday after positive US GDP data encouraged investors to buy-back into perceived riskier currencies.

• The aussie pulled back nearly two cents, or 1.0%, bringing the sterling/aussie pair back down to trade around 1.80 as the data spurred demand for risk.
• Investors have been cashing profits in the Australian currency recently as global equities took a downturn, but yesterday’s figure saw traders revive long positions in the aussie.
• Analysts noted that the figures were a near-perfect combination for riskier assets: strong enough to encourage those with an optimistic outlook on the financial markets, but not too strong to generate expectations of accelerated monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve.
• In trading this morning, the pound has halted its fall and is currently trading up around 0.2% with price hovering above 1.8100.

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The dollar snapped four days of gains against the euro as the US economy returned to growth in the three months through September, officially exiting recession.

• The US government’s advance estimate showed gross domestic product grew at an annualised rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, the first rise since the second quarter of 2008, which beat expectations for a reading of 3.3%.
• The data reduced the safe-haven appeal of the greenback, encouraging investors to sell their dollar holdings in favour of growth-linked currencies, enabling the euro to climb over a cent on the day.
• Analysts did note however, that concern may still linger over whether the US economy will be able to sustain this level of growth as the government begins to unwind its stimulus packages.
• In addition, trading yesterday saw the European Commission’s economic sentiment indicator post a bigger-than-expected October rise. The index for the eurozone rose to 86.2 from 82.8 in September, beating expectations and lending support to the single currency’s rally.

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Sterling edged up against the aussie yesterday, benefiting from improved UK sales data, which supported claims that the UK economy is recovering.

• On Monday evening, MPC member Adam Posen, following negative GDP data, stated that there were still signs of an economic recovery even if Britain is behind other countries in pulling out of the recession.
• His statement found support yesterday after the UK CBI sales showed month-on-month improvement, beating market expectations and buoying demand for the UK currency.
• The UK currency has pushed higher in trading this morning after investors pared bets of a steep rate rise in Australia after inflation data did not increase by as much as some had anticipated.
• The quarterly CPI figure came in at 1.0%, which tilted the markets away from pricing in a more aggressive upward rate movement at the next RBA meeting on Nov 3 rd.
• Currently the pair are trading around the 1.80 level, just below a three-week high for the pound.

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In trading on Friday, the pound slipped back from two-week highs around the 1.8000 level against the aussie as a weak GDP figure dulled demand for the UK currency.

• A report showed that the UK failed to exit the recession in the third quarter of this year, giving the central bank more reason to keep enacting emergency measures to spur growth.
• The data showed that the UK contracted by a further 0.4%, disappointing expectations of a 0.2% expansion and firmly halting the pound’s progress.
• Where as in Australia interest rates have already been raised on the back of growing confidence in the economy, the UK may now be considering further loosening its monetary policies as recovery struggles to take hold.
• In trading this morning, the pound continues to fall, currently down 0.4% after the aussie received a boost from a Chinese report that suggested authorities were looking to diversify the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
• The report suggested that China may look to buy up euro’s and yen, which analysts said could also spill over into the aussie providing further demand.

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Sterling lost three cents (1.9%) to the dollar, as a weak UK quarterly GDP figure abruptly halted the pound’s recent rally.

• The greenback gained the most daily value against the pound in a month as the UK’s economy unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter, giving the Bank of England more reason to expand emergency measures to spur growth.
• It is the first time UK gross domestic product has contracted for six consecutive quarters, since quarterly figures were first recorded in 1955.
• The pound fell more than a cent against the US dollar following the release of the figures, losing 0.6% in two minutes, with traders particularly concerned that the UK may turn out to be the only major economy still in recession.
• The unexpected decline in the services sector was the key factor behind the drop. The UK economy’s reliance on the service sector, and financial services in particular, may be the reason why it is still in recession when partners such as France and Germany exited earlier in the year.
• This suggests that the likelihood of an expansion in quantitative easing by £50bn or so over the next quarter is rising, which will put further pressure on the pound.

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In an uncertain day for the UK economy, the pound lost as much as 2.0% to the euro on Friday, sharply reversing its recent rally to close down at 1.0862.

• Data revealed that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.4% between July and September this year, confirming that the UK is still in recession.
• Quarterly growth of 0.2% had been expected, although expectations had been tempered by recent figures showing no growth in retail sales in September and a 2.5% decline in industrial output in August.
• Importantly, the disappointing GDP figures may now lead the Bank of England to consider the possibility of extending their asset purchase scheme in their November meeting in order to sustain the evidently fragile recovery.
• Recent comments from policymakers had led markets to believe that the UK would be tightening monetary policies, however the tone is likely to be quite different following Friday’s GDP figure.
• In trading this morning, the pound remains under pressure with investors continuing to sell the UK currency following last week’s disappointing data.

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