CBR should inflation

Financial Analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich: On Thursday, the board of directors of Bank of Russia decided to lower the refinancing rate by half a percentage point to 9,5%. As stated in the declaration, such a decision in the first place “stimulates the activity of the credit of the banking sector. This means that the Bank intends to continue to struggle with the strengthening of the ruble, using not only the purchase of currency on the market.

One reason for the deepest recession in Russia served as a huge amount of foreign loans. If the situation gets out of control the central bank may apply the effective action only in respect of its own currency. During the fall, economic activity is an objective measure of the depreciation of the currency, but in our circumstances (and an even greater extent in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe), this policy simply increases the volume of bad debts.

One solution to the Central Bank has been a significant limitation on the issuance of new loans in foreign currency. But in the long term, not long-term use of protective barriers. Another option is to bring monetary policy in conformity with what is observed in the creditor countries, of course, subject to Russian realities. As is evident from the statement of the Central Bank, this is the ultimate goal of policy. The stakes for business in the 14-18%% APR prohibitively large, they consume a significant portion of the profit only to debt servicing. And in this case slowing of inflation favors the monetary authorities. Following its decline in the Bank can cut rates, making them more acceptable to companies originating loans in rubles.

Inflation may slow down for two reasons: a weak activity in the country and the strengthening of the ruble against other currencies for external reasons. But strengthening of the ruble has many other negative effects (pressure on Russia’s companies and the growth of speculative interest rate). With great probability it can be said that the chosen course for further narrowing the interest rate differential between Russia and other countries with a gradual weakening of the screws on lending in foreign currency. While these restrictions still look reasonable.

On hand in this case will deter the growth of energy prices. Such a trivial move for oil-exporting countries suddenly began to move and some representatives OPEK.Pri such developments in the coming years we will not talk about the windfall from oil and curbing the growth rate of the ruble and inflation.

In the short term, the ruble may still continue to rise for this week to 28.80 on news of the strengthening of economic activity in the world and the development antidollarovyh sentiment. New highs for oil can also strengthen the value of the ruble to a basket, today it has updated at least since the beginning of the year, referring to 35,33 p. As a result, increases the likelihood of further reductions in rates and falling inflation, but it is unlikely to create jobs and stimulate business activity.